那一场呼啸而过的青春

Third China-US Track 1.5 Dialogue held in Beijing as attendees discuss constructive strategic stability, practical cooperation_我的网站

A |     过去半个世纪，7-ELEVEn便利店(以下简称7-11)的经营体系几乎从未被撼动。                   从不打折的定价策略，到24小时不熄灯的营业铁律，再到严苛的加盟制度，这家便利店巨头凭借一套标准化系统，牢牢统治着日本的各大街角。    

    The International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (IDCPC) and the American Asia Society holds the third China-US Track 1.5 Dialogue in Beijing, China on August 25, 2026. Photo: IDCPC's WeChat account
The third China-US Track 1.5 Dialogue was held in Beijing on Tuesday, bringing together government officials, scholars and business representatives from both countries for discussions on constructive strategic stability and practical cooperation.
Co-hosted by the International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (IDCPC) and the Asia Society, the dialogue was attended by about 40 representatives. Participants included officials from relevant Chinese government departments and local governments, experts from think tanks and universities, as well as figures from US strategic and business circles, including John L. Thornton, co-chair of the Asia Society Board of Trustees.
Under the theme "Constructive Strategic Stability - Practical China-US Cooperation in the New Era," the participants held candid, in-depth and constructive exchanges, according to the IDCPC's release on its WeChat account on Tuesday.
Addressing the dialogue, Liu Haixing, head of the International Department of the CPC Central Committee, said the two sides have recently followed the direction set by the two heads of state, taken practical steps to strengthen communication and dialogue, advanced a positive agenda and achieved notable results.
Liu called on the two countries to continuously enlarge common interests and make cooperation the anchor of positive stability. He urged the two countries to uphold mutual benefit and reject zero-sum games so that competition remains within bounds, to seek common ground while managing differences, and observe the bottom line of no conflict and no confrontation to achieve lasting peace and stability.
Participants discussed ways to enhance political mutual trust, expand economic and trade cooperation, and explore cooperation in artificial intelligence, science and technology, CCTV News reported.
Established in 2023, the China-US Track 1.5 Dialogue operates between formal government-to-government diplomacy, known as Track 1, and purely nongovernmental exchanges, known as Track 2. The second dialogue was held on June 13, 2024, during which participants held candid, in-depth and constructive exchanges around the theme of "sharing perspectives and finding solutions on key and urgent issues."
As a channel involving both government and nongovernmental participants, the Track 1.5 mechanism can help China and the US communicate more effectively, identify common ground and better understand the consensus reached by the two heads of state, Zhou Mi, a senior research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told the Global Times on Tuesday.
It can also help translate the consensus into greater mutual understanding and concrete action, Zhou said.
Discussions on AI at this year's dialogue could help the two sides identify shared interests despite existing frictions and technological challenges, creating opportunities for practical cooperation and laying the groundwork for follow-up efforts, he noted.
Wang Yiwei, a professor at the Renmin University of China's School of International Studies, told the Global Times on Tuesday that the Track 1.5 dialogue serves as a bridge between Track 1 and Track 2, allowing participants to discuss sensitive issues and explore policy space while conveying frontline assessments and feasible proposals to decision-making departments. 
Liu outlined practical pathways for China-US cooperation in the new era. First, the two sides should uphold mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, steer China-US relations to overcome the "Thucydides Trap," and create a new paradigm of major-country relations.
Second, the two countries should jointly shoulder their responsibilities as major powers, make constructive interaction an important driver of international cooperation, address global challenges together and inject greater stability into the world, Liu noted.
Third, they should expand exchanges and cooperation in trade, public health, agriculture, tourism, people-to-people ties, law enforcement and cooperation between localities, thereby strengthening the resilience of bilateral relations and working toward a better future, Liu said.
Overcoming the "Thucydides Trap" fundamentally rejects the notion that conflict between major powers is inevitable, Wang Yiwei said. It reflects an effort by China and the US to pursue a path different from the historical confrontation between an established power and a rising one.
Such a model does not seek to avoid competition altogether, but to ensure that competition has boundaries, differences remain manageable and cooperation retains sufficient space, Wang Yiwei said.
To put this approach into practice, the two countries should respect each other, avoid crossing red lines concerning core interests and reduce the risk of strategic miscalculation. They should expand areas where their interests converge and establish regular cooperation mechanisms on global issues such as climate change, public health, food security and AI safety, turning shared responsibilities into joint action, he noted.
As the world's two largest economies, China and the US should recognize that many global challenges cannot be effectively addressed without coordination between them, particularly at a time of intensifying competition. Constructive engagement is therefore not a temporary expedient but a long-term responsibility that major countries should undertake for the world, Wang Yiwei said.
The dialogue came a day after China's top political advisor Wang Huning met with US delegates attending the event in Beijing on Monday.
During their meetings, the US side said that the US-China relationship is at a special juncture, adding that the sound rapport between the two heads of state constitutes the most valuable and important part of bilateral ties. The US side agrees that both sides should act on the consensus of building a constructive US-China relationship of strategic stability, advance corporate cooperation, expand people-to-people and cultural exchanges, guard against risks such as those posed by artificial intelligence, and deliver benefits to both countries and the rest of the world, according to Xinhua.
。                   然而，近日的2025财年第二季度财报会上，这块“冻土”生出了裂痕：7-11宣布，将50年来首次对加盟合同进行全面调整。                   对于这家以“规则”著称的企业而言，此番变动无疑折射出“便利店一哥”的深层焦虑。                   表面回暖，暗藏隐忧                    7-11母公司7&i控股公布的2025财年上半年财报显示(注：文中金额均已按1日元=0.0473人民币的汇率换算)：                    报告期内，集团总营业收入为2656亿元，同比下降6.9%；营业利润98.6亿元，同比增长11.4%；归属于母公司的净利润为57.7亿元，同比大幅增长133.1%。                   其中，日本7-11业务营业收入为218.7亿元，与去年同期持平；营业利润为57.6亿元，同比下降4.6%。海外7-11业务营业收入为1996亿元，同比下降8.5%；营业利润为37.9亿元，同比增长9.3%。                   从财报数字看，这份财报表面回暖，实则隐忧重重。

B |                              营收下降的主要原因并非主业萎缩，而是北美市场油价下跌所致。而利润提升，则得益于两大因素：一是伊藤洋华堂等超市板块通过关闭亏损店、优化结构实现扭亏；二是海外7-11在“食品”领域的表现突出，利润保持稳健增长。                   问题在于，作为集团主心骨的日本7-11业务仍在“失速”。尽管客单价与同店销售额保持增长，但客流量始终未能“止跌”。反观竞争对手，罗森与全家展现出了更强的增长势头。它们不仅在同期实现了营业利润的“双位数”增长，单店日销售额也同步升至约2.85万元，进一步缩小了与7-11(约3.3万元)的差距。                   此外，日本便利店行业正处于“结构性”疲软期。通胀背景下，消费者变精明了，药妆店、小型食品超市等业态以低价优势蚕食客流，便利店受制于加盟模式难以大幅降价，增速明显放缓。根据日本经济产业省数据，2024年便利店食品销售仅增长2%，而药妆业态接近两位数。

C |                    至于北美7-11的IPO计划，这步棋就更微妙了。一方面，集团希望通过上市融资来回购股份，从而提振市场信心；但另一方面，这部分核心盈利业务的利润未来将部分流向外部股东，从长远来看，或对7&i控股每股收益增长形成制约。市场显然不买账，因此集团股价从7月起就一直在“原地踏步”。                   制度松动，裂痕初现                    在财报会上，日本7-11社长阿久津知洋宣布，最早将于2027财年起，对新开门店的加盟商提供最长5年的“经营指导费”(即特许加盟费)减免。这是自1974年以来，7-11首次计划对加盟合同进行全面调整。

D |                    截至2025年8月，7-11在日本拥有21552家门店，其中直营店仅186家，99%以上均由加盟店主经营。

E | 虽然多店经营者比例有所提升，但仍仅占约30%，大多数仍是单店个体模式。单店经营抗风险能力弱、运营成本高，一旦市场波动，冲击便格外明显。                   换句话说，7-11希望鼓励加盟商从“单店单主”向“多店经营”模式转变。

F |                    根据现行“毛利分配”制度，7-11总部与加盟店按约定比例分配门店销售毛利。总部提供商品与运营支持，加盟店则支付经营指导费作为回报。该费用占毛利的比例因物业形态而异，目前新店开业5年内费率高达约60%。                   对此，许多店主认为，在销售尚未稳定时承担如此高比例的抽成负担过重。此次改革正是回应这一痛点。7-11计划自2027财年起下调费率，具体比例将于2026年春季公布。短期来看，这或将压缩总部利润，但从长远看，有望扩大整体门店规模、提升体系稳定性。                   值得注意的是，本次优惠仅针对新开门店，现有店主并不在适用范围。不少加盟商对此表示遗憾，在最低工资不断上调、人工与水电成本持续上涨的现实下，现有门店的经营压力同样迫切。                   过去，加盟店靠着摸透本地需求，做出自己的特色。但现在，店主年纪大了、人手也不够，问题一大堆。面对这种情况，除了借助IT技术实现收银、订货等环节的自动化之外，推动加盟合同改革，降低多店经营的门槛，也已成为行业共同的应对方向之一。                   多店经营，加速变革                    数据显示，截至2025年2月底，日本罗森的14694家门店由5262名店主经营，其中经营两家及以上门店的店主占比已达半数；从门店分布看，多店主掌控的门店比例更高达80.7%，头部加盟者甚至同时运营着48家门店。日本全家的体系同样呈现这一特征：在14885家门店中，38.9%的店主掌握着68.2%的门店。                   相比之下，7-11长期保持着以单店经营为主的传统结构。                   阿久津知洋坦言：“目前，7-11单店的日均销售额约为70万日元(约3.3万人民币)，过去一直是日本便利店的领军者。但也正因如此，我们在适应新时代的转型上有所滞后，组织内部也变得有些封闭。今后我们将以谦虚的态度向外界学习，与全体人员一起加速改革。”                    7&i控股社长史蒂芬·戴卡斯进一步强调，“能否倾听一线声音，是加盟体系能否持续健康发展的关键。

G | ”他透露自己现在每个周末都会实地走访门店，直接与经营顾问和店主交流，以把握经营中的真实问题。                   有业内人士指出，多店经营的价值不仅在于摊薄成本，更在于提升效率。面对永旺旗下小型超市“MyBasket”等低价业态的竞争压力，多店铺模式展现出更强的抗风险能力。

H | 即便个别店铺业绩波动，也不会影响整体收益，还能在多个门店间灵活调配人力资源，提升运营效率。此外，经验丰富、资金实力雄厚的多店主更易与总部建立稳定的长期合作关系。                   除了加盟制度的调整，7-11也在多维度寻求突破。技术层面，公司正加速推广自助收银系统，并新设“新业务推进部”，积极探索未来业态与创新模式。商品策略上，7-11正在加强收银区一旁的现制食品业务，并将继续深化“喜悦价格！”低价系列商品。                   针对品牌理念的重塑，阿久津知洋指出：“过去，我们认为‘美味’是核心价值。如今我们意识到，情感价值与消费乐趣同样重要。

I | 借助外部营销团队，我们开始建立商品策划与电视广告体系，并已初见成效。从本财年下半年至下一财年，我们将逐步落实全新品牌概念‘7-11里会有什么呢’，敬请期待。”                    写在最后                    说到底，7-11现在的困境是典型的“大公司病”。

J |                    海外业务规模已经和日本本土旗鼓相当，但本土市场这个根基正在松动。药妆店、折扣店这些新业态的崛起，本质上反映的是消费者需求和消费场景的变化。便利店如果还停留在“便利溢价”的老逻辑里，不从商品力、价格力、体验感上做真正的创新，恐怕很难走出当前的困局。                   从“规则制定者”到“谦虚学习者”，7-11的姿态转变值得肯定。但在瞬息万变的零售战场上，态度的转变能否转化为行动的速度，才是这场改革成败的关键。50年来的首次“让步”，究竟是破冰之举，还是为时已晚的应急之策？还有待时间的进一步检验。                   本文来自微信公众号：新零售 （ID：ixinlingshou），作者：李言。

Current article:http://w5cjldc.xuebenwagangqingre.buzz/list_arp/aiu.html

Published on:02:08:59